Originally
posted by
blid:
Actually, tech was still better than most sets in recent times. Looking back a full year, that's the last six sets, tech prices this set were better than four of them, and food prices this set were lower than four of them.
But the tech prices clearly weren't high enough to compete with cashers. This is one of the worst indy sets ever and I don't think we'll see any techers competing with the top indy either.
Actually I beg to differ. I took a quick look at the past 8 set's tech prices (business tech for comparison) and here's what I found: (format will be set, price on day 10/20/30/40/50/55/food peak/top techer nw)
this set - 2500/2250/2000/1600/850/750/$44 from day 40-47/??
Mar'13 - 3200/3150/1950/2000/1950/950/>$70 from day 36-43/135.2m
Jan'13 - 2800/2450/2000/1450/1150/700/$60 from day 43-45/101.6m
Nov'12 - 2600/2100/1700/1600/1450/950/$50 on day 48/105.4m
Sep'12 - 2250/2600/2450/1600/1400/1050/>$40 from day 35 to 50/113.8m
Jul'12 - 3000/2250/1800/1900/1100/750/$45 on day 47/101.5m
May'12 - 2000/1950/1550/1500/1450/950/$55 on day 44/100.5m
Mar'12 - 2500/2500/2400/2050/2350/1500/>$60 from day 38-45/126m
Jan'12 - 2200/2050/1900/1300/900/1250/$51 on day 43/76.4m
The important phases for a techer are (approximates only):
a) day 1 to day 35 or so (grabbing phase)
b) day 35 to about day 55 (stocking phase)
c) day 55 to the end (destocking and reselling phase)
I will agree that the grabbing phase tech prices were not too bad this set, but still lower than average. 5 of the sets shown above had better prices.
The stocking phase is what matters for a techer. If you just sum up the day 40/50/55 prices in the table above, you will notice this set's prices were the worst of the lot. Jan'13 and Jan'12 had comparable stocking period prices but they were compensated by higher food peaks ($60 in Jan'13 and $51 for Jan'12), which a techer can leverage on to make profits by selling down (most bushels would have been bought in the low $40s on average and to sell at $60 means a profit of 40-50%).
So I would say, this is a pretty sucky tech set.