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KoHeartsGPA

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23,648

Jun 19th 2020, 19:24:49

Originally posted by HEMPMAN1:
I had a joke about the Baltimore Riots
But someones already stolen it :(


LOL

Ravens are going to be fun to watch this season!

#1 Chiefs
#2 Ravens
#3 Texans
#4 Titans

I only listed those 4 because they have weapons galore in the AFC, in other side I think my 49ers are going to dominate the conference again, not much competition there, maybe the Saints can challenge.

fluff politics, football is more important!
Mess with me you better kill me, or I'll just take your pride & joy and jack it up
(•_•)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6VRMGTwU4I
-=TSO~DKnights~XI~LaF=-

S.F. Giants 2010, 2012, 2014 World Series Champions, fluff YEAH!

ZEN

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1300

Jun 22nd 2020, 19:37:51

Originally posted by elvesrus:

Basically they stopped all active policing for roughly 2 months with non major crime and narcotics arrests dropping significantly. The blue line is from 2013/4 with the yellow line 2014/5 (mid-may to mid-may) with the colored area being standard deviation. Note how close they are outside the slowdown and after the ruling in 2013. Would be nice to have the year after on there, but that's too much effort to try to win an online argument :)
https://media.springernature.com/...211_Fig1_HTML.jpg?as=webp


Ok....I spent enough time understanding what the hell they were trying to say.

In a nutshell. This study shows that with less aggressive pro-active police work, less major crime was committed during the shutdown compared to the previous year timeline. It was definitely less during the shut down.

But....this statement is not backed by the data.

It wasn't about responding. The theory is that when a community is pushed by pro-active policing and high summons and low level crime is aggressively targeted, it festers an environment for more major crime.

Which is why biased statistics is a real thing. The data is clean. The numbers are accurate. The interpretation, to me, is biased. My interpretation is probably biased too though. So be wary.

The Biased Opinion Statistics (to support the idea that OMP doesnt work):

1. During the shut down, there was an 12% drop in major crime complaints from the previous year.
2. During the shut down, non-major crime arrests were near 0 (ya that is what happens during a shutdown)
3. During the shut down, summonses were near 0 (ya that is what happens during a shutdown)
4. During the shut down, stops were near 0 (ya that is what happens during a shutdown)

Here is my issue. These are the facts that they don't outline because it doesn't support their opinion or theory:

1. Three months PRIOR to the shut down, there was a drop of ~10.4% in major crime complaints from the previous year.
2. Less than than a month PRIOR to the shut down, there was an even larger drop of ~14.3% in major crime complaints from the previous year.
3. Less than a month AFTER the shut down, they experienced the largest drop of ~26% in major crime complaints from the previous year (so this is more or less after the police are back in full force).
4. A little over a month AFTER the shut down, they experienced the second largest drop~18% in major crime complaints from the previous year.
5. Three months AFTER the shut down, they experienced another drop of ~11% in major crime complaints from the previous year.
6. Almost all major crime complaints were lower in 14-15' vs 13-14'. Throughout the year. So what did they do different?

I also don't like the following statement. I just don't see evidence of 2011, 2012 or 2016 numbers that they claim to use in their formula. I requested the data from Christopher Sullivan at Oregon State, but I doubt my reason will be deemed reasonable.

"Data availability
The data that supports the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request."

ZEN

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1300

Jun 22nd 2020, 19:46:09

Originally posted by galleri:

I have heard you bring up Baltimore a few times in the last few months.
Show me on the doll where it touched you wrong lmao


I've been all over the country and a lot of places in the world. Almost all places, people, cultures are accommodating to anyone and everyone. When I spent a few months in Baltimore, I realized how people outside of our country could hate us so much.

Even New York City and the pits of New Jersey has their blunt charm. At least they have heart.

There was almost nobody welcoming in Baltimore. Even the customer who PAID me to be there for months was an asshole.

Drow

Member
1436

Jun 22nd 2020, 22:33:38

Originally posted by Cerberus:
Zen is right about that. One cannot live in the same district as they serve, we all know why too. The problem is NOT the police, they are not all evil assholes, just some of them are and they can be weeded out pretty easily given the political will to do so. It will involve the people actually starting to pay attention to it rather than focusing on getting the latest damned iPhone and cruising the suburban malls. If the politicians knew that the people were going to hold them accountable for police actions under their watch. fluff would change quickly. Vote out ALL the leftist politicians this cycle and most of them can be swept out of office this round since ALL the congressmen and like 43% of the senate are open for a new candiudate. Imagine getting rid of those pricks that have had decades and done NOTHING for us. Replace Every single one of them.


Vote out ALL the politicians. It's not the "leftists" as you put it who support police brutality.
as for "its only a few that can get weeded out pretty easily" something like 40% of US police have domestic violence reports in their names.
When you have a recruitment system designed to dumb down candiadtes, and when said candidates are not only not required to know the law to enforce it, but spend less time getting trained for the job than say a fireman, or paramedic, or social worker, or, well, ANY other front line staff really, and whilst the training emphasizes bloodshed over deescalation, nothing will change. This is a police system that literally just cheered the guy who handed a 14yo boy over the protests of two witnesses who knew him to be a child, and after refusing to perform an ID check, back to Jefrrey Dahmer.
Let that sink in. That's a force wide problem, not merely a few individuals.

Retired Earth type.