Basically they stopped all active policing for roughly 2 months with non major crime and narcotics arrests dropping significantly. The blue line is from 2013/4 with the yellow line 2014/5 (mid-may to mid-may) with the colored area being standard deviation. Note how close they are outside the slowdown and after the ruling in 2013. Would be nice to have the year after on there, but that's too much effort to try to win an online argument :)
Ok....I spent enough time understanding what the hell they were trying to say.
In a nutshell. This study shows that with less aggressive pro-active police work, less major crime was committed during the shutdown compared to the previous year timeline. It was definitely less during the shut down.
But....this statement is not backed by the data.
It wasn't about responding. The theory is that when a community is pushed by pro-active policing and high summons and low level crime is aggressively targeted, it festers an environment for more major crime.
Which is why biased statistics is a real thing. The data is clean. The numbers are accurate. The interpretation, to me, is biased. My interpretation is probably biased too though. So be wary.
The Biased Opinion Statistics (to support the idea that OMP doesnt work):
1. During the shut down, there was an 12% drop in major crime complaints from the previous year.
2. During the shut down, non-major crime arrests were near 0 (ya that is what happens during a shutdown)
3. During the shut down, summonses were near 0 (ya that is what happens during a shutdown)
4. During the shut down, stops were near 0 (ya that is what happens during a shutdown)
Here is my issue. These are the facts that they don't outline because it doesn't support their opinion or theory:
1. Three months PRIOR to the shut down, there was a drop of ~10.4% in major crime complaints from the previous year.
2. Less than than a month PRIOR to the shut down, there was an even larger drop of ~14.3% in major crime complaints from the previous year.
3. Less than a month AFTER the shut down, they experienced the largest drop of ~26% in major crime complaints from the previous year (so this is more or less after the police are back in full force).
4. A little over a month AFTER the shut down, they experienced the second largest drop~18% in major crime complaints from the previous year.
5. Three months AFTER the shut down, they experienced another drop of ~11% in major crime complaints from the previous year.
6. Almost all major crime complaints were lower in 14-15' vs 13-14'. Throughout the year. So what did they do different?
I also don't like the following statement. I just don't see evidence of 2011, 2012 or 2016 numbers that they claim to use in their formula. I requested the data from Christopher Sullivan at Oregon State, but I doubt my reason will be deemed reasonable.
The data that supports the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request."